What is Set Mining?

Set mining refers to calling a raise preflop with a small pair (22-99) hoping to flop a set and win a big pot. The core of this play is the enormous implied odds of small pairs – when you hit a set, your opponent is likely holding a strong hand and will commit many chips.

Depth Chart: How Stack Depth Affects Set Mining

The “depth chart” is actually a visualization of implied odds. It summarizes whether set mining is profitable at different effective stack depths. The classic rule is the “5/10/20 Rule”:

• 5x Rule: If the call amount is less than 5% of the effective stack, you can call directly (e.g., effective stack 100BB, call ≤ 5BB).
• 10x Rule: If the call amount is between 5%‑10%, you need your opponent to have a wide range and be aggressive postflop to call.
• 20x Rule: If the call amount exceeds 10%, you generally need the effective stack to be 20 times the call amount to consider calling.

Example: You hold 55, opponent raises to 4BB, effective stack 100BB. 4BB is 4% of the effective stack, satisfying the 5x rule – easy call. If the effective stack is only 30BB, then 4BB is 13.3%, not meeting the 20x rule (needs at least 80BB), so you should fold.

The Logic Behind the Depth Chart

Set mining must compensate for the times you miss (about 88% of the time). After calling, you flop a set only about 12% of the time. So on average, each success must win about 8 times the call amount (1/0.12 ≈ 8.3) just to break even – but that is a rough estimate. In practice, you also need to consider:

• Losses when you miss: You usually fold on the flop, losing the call.
• Opponent’s payoffs when you hit: Not every set wins a big pot; sometimes your opponent also folds.
• Reverse Implied Odds: Occasionally you hit a set and still lose (e.g., against a bigger set or a made draw), though this is rare.

Therefore, an effective stack of 20 times the call amount is a safe threshold. It ensures you have enough opportunities to win back your losses when you do hit.

Adjustments for Different Stack Depths

Deep Stacks (>100BB)

Odds are very favorable here – almost all pairs can call. But pay attention to your opponent’s range: if he only raises strong hands (e.g., AA, KK), he is more likely to pay you off when you hit; if his range is wide, you may not get value as often.

• Position: Calling in position makes it easier to extract value; out of position, be more cautious.
• Opponent Tendency: Against aggressive postflop opponents, your set is more likely to get paid.

Medium Stacks (40‑80BB)

Strictly follow the 20x rule. If the call exceeds 5% of the effective stack, evaluate whether the opponent will overcommit postflop. For example:

• If the opponent is tight‑aggressive with a high c‑bet frequency, you’ll likely win a big pot when you hit.
• If the opponent is weak‑passive and makes small bets postflop, it’s harder to get enough return.

Shallow Stacks (<30BB)

Set mining is almost never profitable with shallow stacks. Because the maximum you can win when you hit is limited (less than 30BB), and if the call is large (e.g., 3‑5BB), you need to win 8x (24‑40BB), but your opponent may not commit his entire stack. Fold unless the call is tiny (e.g., 1BB).

Real‑World Examples

Scenario One: 6‑max cash game, effective stack 150BB. UTG raises to 3BB. You have 77 in the big blind.

• The call is 2BB (because you already posted 1BB as big blind), which is 1.3% of the effective stack – well under 5%.
• Easy call, plan to fold if you miss the flop.

Scenario Two: Effective stack 40BB. MP raises to 3BB. You have 44 on the button.

• The call of 3BB is 7.5% of 40BB – between 5% and 10%.
• Is MP aggressive? If yes, call; if no, fold.

Scenario Three: Effective stack 25BB. CO raises to 4BB. You have 22 in the big blind.

• The call is 3BB, which is 12% of 25BB – well over 10%.
• Even though implied odds are higher, the effective stack is too small. You can win at most 25BB when you hit, but your total cost (including possible postflop bluffs) might be higher. Best to fold.

Common Pitfalls

• Multi‑way Pots: When multiple players call, you may hit a set but also face greater potential losses (someone might be drawing to a flush or straight). Lower your threshold for calling, but still consider effective stacks.
• Facing a 3‑bet: When you face a 3‑bet, your odds worsen. You usually need either deeper stacks or a stronger hand (e.g., TT+) to continue.

Summary

The depth chart is not a rigid table – it’s a tool to help you think about implied odds. The core question is: Can you win enough chips when you hit to make up for all the times you miss? If yes, set mine; otherwise, fold.

By mastering the depth chart and factoring in opponent tendencies and position, you can profitably use set mining.