Fold to Steal

Definition

Fold to Steal (FTS) is a statistical metric in poker, often used in no-limit hold'em cash games and tournaments. It represents the percentage of times a player folds their hand when facing a raise from either the cutoff, button, or small blind (the steal positions) while they are in the big blind or sometimes the small blind.

Calculation

Fold to Steal = (Number of folds to a steal raise) / (Total number of opportunities to face a steal raise) × 100%. Most tracking software calculates this only when the player is in the blinds, as that is the typical scenario where a player has a decision to fold, call, or 3-bet against a late-position raise.

Interpretation

A high Fold to Steal percentage (e.g., >80%) indicates that a player frequently surrenders their blind to late-position raisers. This can be exploited by opponents who will increase their stealing frequency against such players. Conversely, a low Fold to Steal (e.g., <50%) suggests the player defends their blinds aggressively, often calling or raising back, which discourages opponents from stealing too often.

Optimal Fold to Steal varies by game type, stack depth, and opponent tendencies. In general, a well-balanced strategy often involves defending the big blind with a wide range—roughly 40–60% of hands—to prevent opponents from stealing profitably. This corresponds to a Fold to Steal around 40–60% in many scenarios. However, in tournament play with larger blinds and antes, and especially near the money bubble, Fold to Steal can become very high as players tighten up.

Strategic Implications

Understanding a player's Fold to Steal allows opponents to adjust their steal-raising frequency. If a player folds too often, the correct exploit is to raise any two cards from late position when that player is in the blinds. If a player defends too much, opponents should tighten their stealing range and consider value-raising more. Conversely, a player can use their own Fold to Steal as a guideline: if they are folding too much, they should widen their blind defense range; if defending too much, they should fold more garbage hands to avoid playing out of position postflop.

Related Concepts

• Steal: An attempt to win the blinds and antes with a raise from a late position.
• Blind Defense: The act of calling or raising a steal attempt from the blinds.
• 3-Bet: A re-raise, often used from the blinds to counter a steal.
• Fold to 3-Bet: A complementary stat measuring how often a player folds to a 3-bet after raising.
• RFI: Raise First In, the frequency with which a player raises when no one else has entered the pot.

Limitations

Fold to Steal is a raw frequency stat and does not account for hand strength, opponent tendencies, or table dynamics. Players with very low or very high FTS may be using exploitative strategies that deviate from GTO, and thus the stat should be interpreted in context with other metrics like VPIP, PFR, and 3-bet percentages.