Fold to Steal

Context: Term article: Fold to Steal

Overview

Fold to Steal (FTS) is an important statistical metric in Texas Hold'em that measures a player's tendency to defend their blinds against steal attempts. It typically evaluates the probability that a player will fold when facing a raise from late position (e.g., the Button or Cutoff) while in the big blind or small blind. This data is valuable for analyzing opponents' blind defense strategies and adjusting one's own steal frequency.

Calculation

Fold to Steal is typically automatically tracked by online poker software (e.g., Hold'em Manager, PokerTracker). The formula is:

• Numerator: Number of times the player folded to a steal raise while in the blinds
• Denominator: Total number of times the player faced a steal raise while in the blinds (including folds, calls, and raises)

Only valid steal situations are counted (i.e., when an opponent raises from the Button or Cutoff, and all previous players have folded).

Typical Ranges

• Extremely tight players: FTS > 85%, frequently surrendering blinds, vulnerable to steals.
• Normal range: Approximately 65%–80% for most players.
• Aggressive defenders: FTS < 55%, often calling or re-raising, making steals risky.

Note: Values may vary by stakes and game type (6-max vs. full ring).

Strategy Applications

• Against high FTS opponents: Increase steal frequency from late position, as they fold easily, allowing you to win the blinds outright.
• Against low FTS opponents: Reduce steal attempts, or raise with a wider range of value hands, prepared to counter their re-raises.
• Self-adjustment: If your own FTS is too high, you become exploitable—consider widening your calling or 3-bet range. If your FTS is too low, you may be over-defending and entering unfavorable situations.

Notes

• Sample size: FTS requires a sufficient sample (at least 100 opportunities recommended) to be statistically meaningful.
• Position differences: FTS often differs between the small blind and big blind; the small blind tends to be tighter due to positional disadvantage.
• Opponent type: Combine with overall aggression and 3-bet frequency for a comprehensive assessment.

Fold to Steal is a core statistic in blind battles. Proper understanding and application can improve the efficiency of both stealing and defending.