Fold to 3-Bet from MP

Definition

Fold to 3-Bet from MP is a poker HUD statistic that measures how often a player in Middle Position (MP) folds when they have raised first (opened) and then face a 3-bet from another player. It is expressed as a percentage and is calculated as: (Number of times player folded to a 3-bet in MP) / (Total number of opportunities to face a 3-bet after opening in MP).

Usage in HUDs

This stat is typically displayed in a player's HUD along with other positional and preflop stats. It helps opponents understand how tightly or loosely a player defends their raises from MP when facing aggression. A high fold percentage indicates a player who is exploitable by 3-betting them frequently, while a low fold percentage suggests they call or 4-bet often, making 3-betting less profitable.

Typical Values

• Tight players: May have a Fold to 3-Bet from MP above 60%. They often open a polarized range and fold most of it to 3-bets.
• Aggressive regulars: Typically fall between 40-55%, balancing their opening range with enough strong hands to continue.
• Loose players: Below 40% indicate they continue with a wide range, including weaker hands, which can be exploited by 3-betting for value.
• Extreme values: Below 30% or above 70% are often signs of an unbalanced player.

Strategic Implications

Understanding an opponent's fold to 3-bet from MP allows you to adjust your 3-betting strategy:

• Against high fold (e.g., >60%): 3-bet liberally with a wide range (including suited connectors and low pairs) to steal the pot, as they fold often. However, be careful not to overdo it if they adjust.
• Against low fold (e.g., <40%): Tighten your 3-betting range to value hands only (like premium pairs and strong Aces), since they rarely fold and you risk being 4-bet or played postflop with a weak hand.
• Against medium folds (40-55%): Use a balanced 3-betting range that includes both value and bluffs, adjusting based on their postflop tendencies.

This stat is most useful when combined with other stats like Total 3-Bet and Fold to 4-Bet to get a fuller picture of preflop tendencies.

Limitations

• Sample size: This stat requires a significant number of opportunities to be reliable. 100+ hands in MP is a minimum for meaningful interpretation.
• Position of the 3-bettor: It doesn't differentiate between a 3-bet from early, blind, or other positions, which may affect calling ranges. Consider using stats like Fold to 3-Bet from CO or BB for more specific reads.
• Stack sizes: The stat may vary with effective stacks. Short stacks often have different defense ranges than deep stacks.
• Opponent adaptation: A good player may alter their fold percentage based on your 3-betting frequency, so always consider the dynamic.