Fold to C-Bet from HJ

Overview

Fold to C-Bet from HJ is a tracking statistic commonly used in online poker, especially in No-Limit Hold'em. It is displayed in Heads-Up Displays (HUDs) and represents how often a player, when in the hijack (HJ) position, folds to a continuation bet (c-bet) on the flop. The HJ is the seat two to the right of the button (UTG+1 in full-ring games with a dedicated UTG).

Calculation

This stat is calculated as:

• Events: Flop situations where the HJ player is not the preflop aggressor, faces a c-bet from the preflop raiser (who could be in any position), and has the opportunity to fold, call, or raise.
• Formula: (Number of folds to c-bet when in HJ) / (Total opportunities to face a c-bet when in HJ).

Typical Values and Interpretation

• Low (below 40%): The player is very sticky on the flop when in HJ, often defending with a wide range. This can indicate a player who calls c-bets too often or traps. Exploit by value-betting wider and reducing bluff c-bets.
• Medium (40%–55%): Typical for a balanced player. They fold marginal holdings but call with draws or top pair. Standard play.
• High (above 55%): The player folds frequently to c-bets from HJ. This suggests they play a narrow, fit-or-fold style. Exploit by c-betting more aggressively with bluffs and lighter value.

Strategic Implications

• Against a high fold-to-c-bet opponent: Increase your c-bet frequency when the HJ folds often. You can profitably bet with air or weak holdings. However, be cautious: if they also have a high 3-bet or check-raise stat, they may be trapping.
• Against a low fold-to-c-bet opponent: Tighten your c-bet range. Value bet thin, and avoid bluffing into a station. You may need to check back more often or double-barrel with strong hands.
• Sample size matters: This stat becomes reliable after several hundred hands. Over small samples, it can be noise.
• Positional awareness: HJ is a middle-late position, so the c-bet often comes from the cutoff, button, or blinds who 3-bet preflop. Adjust c-bet strategy accordingly.

Related Terms

• Fold to C-Bet: General stat for folding to a c-bet regardless of position.
• C-Bet Flop: The percentage of time a player makes a continuation bet on the flop.
• Fold to Flop Bet: Broader stat including all flop bets, not just c-bets.
• Hijack (HJ): The position two seats to the right of the button.
• Continuation Bet (C-Bet): A bet made by the preflop aggressor on the flop.

Limitations

• Does not distinguish between single-raised and 3-bet pots.
• Does not account for stack sizes or board texture.
• Requires a sufficient sample (at least 50-100 opportunities) to be meaningful.
• Can be exploited if opponents adjust to your fold frequency.

Overall, Fold to C-Bet from HJ is a valuable tool for identifying leaks and exploiting opponents' tendencies in one specific positional context.