Fold to Check-Raise

Overview

Fold to Check-Raise (often abbreviated as FTC in tracking software) is a poker statistic that measures how often a player folds when their opponent makes a check-raise. It is commonly used in No-Limit Hold'em and other games to analyze a player's tendencies after they have shown aggression (by betting or raising) and then face unexpected resistance from a check-raise.

How It Is Calculated

The statistic is calculated as:

$$ \text{Fold to Check-Raise} = \frac{\text{Number of times player folds to a check-raise}}{\text{Number of times player faces a check-raise}} \times 100% $$

It only applies to situations where a player was the last aggressor (i.e., they made a bet or raise) on a previous street, and then on the current street an opponent who had checked first now raises after the player's bet. The player's action in response to that check-raise is recorded.

Interpretation in Strategy

• Low FTC (e.g., <30%): The player rarely folds to check-raises, indicating they are likely to call or re-raise. This suggests they may be sticky with strong hands or unwilling to believe the opponent. Exploitatively, you can check-raise with a wider range for value, but avoid bluffing too often since they won't fold.
• High FTC (e.g., >60%): The player frequently folds to check-raises, meaning they are cautious or easily pushed off their hand. You can profitably check-raise as a bluff more often, but should check-raise with value hands less because you may scare them off.
• Moderate FTC (40-50%): A balanced player who folds appropriately. No extreme exploit available.

Importance in Game Theory

In Game Theory Optimal (GTO) play, a player should have a fold percentage that makes the opponent's check-raise bluffs indifferent. The exact number depends on pot odds and betting sizes. For example, if the check-raise is to 3x the player's bet, the player should fold about 50% of the time to prevent the opponent from exploiting them. A significant deviation from GTO can be exploited.

Common Misconceptions

• FTC does not measure how often a player check-raises; that is a separate stat (Check-Raise %).
• The stat is context-dependent: board texture, stack depth, and opponent type matter. A high FTC on dry boards may be okay, but on wet boards it may indicate weakness.
• Sample size matters: FTC stabilizes after a few hundred opportunities; a few hands are meaningless.

Using FTC in HUDs

Poker tracking software like PokerTracker 4 or Hold'em Manager tracks FTC for each player. It is often shown alongside other stats like Fold to C-Bet or Aggression Factor. When reviewing hands, note the sample size before drawing conclusions.

Related Terms

• Check-Raise: An action where a player checks initially, then raises after the opponent bets.
• Fold to C-Bet: The frequency a player folds to a continuation bet, which is a different scenario (aggressor on flop vs. preflop raiser).
• Aggression Factor (AF): A broader measure of a player's tendency to bet/raise vs. call.

Example Scenario

In a 6-max NLH cash game, Hero opens on the button, Big Blind calls. Flop: K♦7♥2♠. Big Blind checks, Hero bets 2/3 pot. Big Blind check-raises to 3x Hero's bet. If Hero folds, that counts as a fold to check-raise for Hero's stat. If Hero calls or re-raises, it does not count as a fold.