HJ Fold to 3-Bet

Overview

HJ Fold to 3-Bet is a poker tracking statistic that measures a player's tendency to fold when their initial raise from the Hijack position is re-raised (3-bet) by an opponent. It is expressed as a percentage and is commonly used in tools like Hold'em Manager and PokerTracker to analyze opponent tendencies.

Interpretation

This stat helps assess how aggressively a player defends their opening range against 3-bets. A high percentage (e.g., over 65%) indicates that the player often folds to 3-bets, suggesting they are tight from HJ or can be exploited by frequent 3-betting. A low percentage (e.g., under 45%) means the player frequently calls or 4-bets, making them tougher to bluff and requiring a stronger value range for 3-betting.

Factors Influencing the Stat

Several factors affect fold to 3-bet, including:

• Stack sizes: In tournaments with shallow stacks, players may fold more often due to ICM pressure. Deep cash games allow more defense.
• Opponent tendencies: A player might fold more to aggressive 3-bettors but call or raise against tighter opponents.
• Position: The HJ is a middle position; fold to 3-bet here may differ from earlier or later positions.
• Game type: In heads-up or short-handed games, players typically defend wider (lower fold %).

Strategic Adjustments

• Against a high HJ Fold to 3-Bet: You can 3-bet more frequently and with a wider range, including bluffs and suited connectors, because the opponent folds often. Be careful not to overdo it if they adjust.
• Against a low HJ Fold to 3-Bet: Tighten your 3-betting range to value hands only (e.g., strong pocket pairs, high suited broadways). Avoid bluffing since they will call or re-raise.

Typical Ranges

While exact values depend on stakes and player pool, general guidelines:

• Tight player: 70%+ fold
• Average player: 55-65% fold
• Aggressive player: below 50% fold

These numbers are approximate and should be combined with sample size and other stats (e.g., 3-bet frequency, fold to c-bet) for reliable reads.

Limitations

Like all HUD stats, HJ Fold to 3-Bet requires a large sample (hundreds of hands) to be meaningful. It can vary by opponent type and table dynamics. Do not over-adjust based on a small sample; consider the player's overall style and recent actions.