MP Fold to 4-Bet

Overview

MP Fold to 4-Bet is a tracking statistic commonly used in online poker to analyze a player's preflop tendencies from middle position when facing a re-raise (4-bet). It is expressed as a percentage and is calculated as: (Number of times MP folds to a 4-bet) / (Number of times MP faces a 4-bet after opening).

Significance

This stat helps assess whether a player is likely to continue with a wide or narrow range after their initial raise is met with aggression. A high fold to 4-bet (e.g., >70%) suggests the player is opening a polarized range but folding many hands to pressure. A low fold to 4-bet (e.g., <40%) indicates they are willing to continue with a wider range, possibly including weaker hands or traps.

Typical Values

• Tight players: 65-80%
• Aggressive/recreational: 40-55%
• Optimal GTO play: around 50-60% depending on stack sizes and positions.

Usage in Strategy

• Exploitation: If a player has a high MP Fold to 4-Bet, you can profitably 4-bet them more frequently, especially with suited connectors or small pairs that can call but mostly as bluffs.
• Adjusting your own range: Against opponents with low fold to 4-bet, you should tighten your 4-betting value range and avoid bluffing, as they will call or 5-bet often.

Considerations

• Sample size matters; at least 10-20 opportunities are needed for reliability.
• This stat is positionally sensitive; MP differs from EP or LP.
• Stack depths affect the stat; deeper stacks tend to decrease fold to 4-bet as implied odds improve.
• Player types: Nits have high fold, LAGs have low fold.

Related Terminology

• 4-Bet Range: The range of hands a player raises over a 3-bet.
• Fold to 4-Bet by Position: Similar stat but broken down by position.
• MP Open-Raise: The percentage of hands a player raises from middle position.