WPH 598: The Poker Hand That Scared Alan Keating

Hand Background

This hand comes from the "Million Dollar Game" cash game on Hustler Casino Live, featuring high-stakes regular Alan Keating, Chinese player Peter, Stanley, and Texas Mike. The game is a cash table with an unknown blind structure, but the initial raise was $5,000.

Hand Review

Pre-flop

Texas Mike in Lojack raises to $5,000 with 6♠2♠, Peter in Hijack calls with A♥7♥, Stanley on the Button calls with J♣T♦, Alan Keating in the small blind calls with A♣Q♦. Pot ~$20,000.

Flop: K♣ Q♥ 7♣

Keating flops top pair of Queens (second pair) and checks. Texas Mike with six-high makes a continuation bet of $15,000, Peter calls with bottom pair plus backdoor straight draw and backdoor flush draw, Stanley calls with an open-ended straight draw, Keating calls with second pair plus backdoor straight draw (needing J-T for a straight). Pot ~$80,000.

Turn: A♣

The turn is A♣, making the board K-Q-7-A with flush and straight possibilities. Keating now has two pair (Aces and Queens) but checks cautiously. Texas Mike also checks, Peter checks with top two pair (Aces and Sevens), and Stanley checks with a straight (J-T). Pot unchanged.

River: A♠

The river brings another Ace, pairing the board. Keating has the second nut full house (A♣Q♦ vs board A♠A♣K♣Q♥7♣, i.e., aces full of queens), losing only to a possible KK. Keating checks, Texas Mike checks (with no pair), and Peter, holding the nut full house (aces full of sevens), overbets $155,000. Stanley correctly folds his straight. Now Keating faces a decision: fold, call, or raise.

Strategy Analysis

Principles of Continuation Betting in Multiway Pots

In multiway pots, the frequency of continuation bets should be lower than in heads-up pots, because at least one opponent is more likely to have a hand that can call or raise. Therefore, it’s usually better to bet with hands that have strong potential to improve, such as flush draws, straight draws, or hands rich in backdoor draws. In this hand, on the flop Texas Mike bets with six-high. Although it’s a pure bluff, according to principle, this type of hand is often unsuitable for betting in multiway pots because it has almost no improvement potential. Meanwhile, Peter and Stanley both call with reasonable draws, and Keating’s top pair of Queens, while currently ahead, needs to be cautious against three opponents.

River Decision

Keating holds the second nut hand, losing only to KK (a hand that might have raised pre-flop). Considering pre-flop action, KK is more likely in Texas Mike’s raising range, but other players could also hold KQ, 77, etc. However, the river Ace reduces the number of those combos. Peter’s $155,000 overbet suggests he believes his hand is very strong – he could hold AK, AQ, KQ, A7, 77, or a bluff. Keating’s check gave Peter the opportunity to bet, and now Keating should raise for maximum value, since many of Peter’s value combos (like AK, AQ, KQ) will call. However, if Keating believes Peter will only call with better full houses (like KK) or bluffs, then calling might be better. But generally, on such a wet board, the second nut full house is strong enough to raise.

Player Profiles

• Alan Keating: A well-known high-stakes cash player, often found in the world’s biggest private games, known for his unreadable demeanor.
• Texas Mike (Michael Moncek): From Chicago, with two WSOP gold bracelets and over $1.8 million in live tournament winnings, but significant losses in high-stakes cash games.
• Peter: A Chinese high-stakes player, frequently appearing on Hustler Casino Live and other streams, who enjoys high-stakes tables.

Conclusion

This hand demonstrates the complexity of multiway pots and the importance of river decisions. If Keating chose to raise, it would likely be the correct play, but the final outcome is unknown. Readers are encouraged to think about the optimal strategy themselves.