Fold to 4-Bet from MP

Definition

Fold to 4-Bet from MP is a poker statistic that measures how often a player folds when they face a 4-bet after they have raised from middle position (MP). It is expressed as a percentage and is commonly used in no-limit hold'em cash games and tournaments to analyze opponent tendencies.

Usage in Strategy

This stat is part of a broader set of positional aggression metrics. A high fold-to-4-bet percentage (e.g., >70%) from MP indicates that the player is exploitable: they are only continuing with very strong hands against a 4-bet, allowing opponents to 3-bet and then 4-bet bluff them profitably. Conversely, a very low fold-to-4-bet (e.g., <30%) suggests the player is sticky and may call or 5-bet often, meaning opponents should 4-bet with value-heavy ranges.

Typical Ranges

In modern GTO (Game Theory Optimal) play, MP open-raises with a range of about 15-20% of hands. Facing a 3-bet from late position (CO or BU), the MP player should defend with around 50-60% of their opening range (including calls and 4-bets). Against a 4-bet, the MP player should fold most of their marginal hands, keeping only strong value (e.g., QQ+, AK) and sometimes balanced bluffs. A typical GTO fold-to-4-bet from MP might be around 40-50%, though this varies with stack depth and opponent tendencies.

How to Exploit

• Against a high fold-to-4-bet player: 3-bet them more often from later positions, and be willing to 4-bet bluff with hands like suited connectors or low pocket pairs, as they will fold often.
• Against a low fold-to-4-bet player: Tighten your 3-bet and 4-bet ranges, and consider value-heavy 4-bets only. Avoid bluffing into calling stations.

Limitations

Like all HUD stats, sample size matters. A small sample (e.g., <20 opportunities) can be misleading. Additionally, fold-to-4-bet can be influenced by stack sizes, table dynamics, and opponent-specific reads. It should be used in conjunction with other stats like VPIP, PFR, 3-bet, and fold to 3-bet for a complete picture.

Related Concepts

• Fold to 3-Bet: Frequency of folding to a 3-bet when raising first in.
• 4-Bet Range: The set of hands a player uses to 4-bet (for value or as a bluff).
• Position: Middle position is typically the seats before the cutoff and hijack; its exact definition varies by table size (e.g., 6-max vs. 9-max).
• GTO: Game Theory Optimal strategy in poker.

Example

In a 6-max game, Hero opens from MP (HJ) with A♠J♠ to 3 BB. CO 3-bets to 9 BB, and Hero 4-bets to 22 BB. CO shoves for 100 BB. Hero folds. Hero's action here is a fold to a 4-bet (from CO’s perspective), but the specific stat "Fold to 4-Bet from MP" tracks situations where the initial raiser folds to a 4-bet. In this case, Hero did not fold to a 4-bet; he made the 4-bet and then folded to a 5-bet jam. So the stat only counts when the original raiser faces a 4-bet directly.

Summary

Fold to 4-Bet from MP is a valuable stat for understanding how opponents respond to aggression after opening from middle position. It helps in adjusting 3-bet and 4-bet strategies to exploit leaks in an opponent's game.