Fold to C-Bet from MP

Overview

Fold to C-Bet from MP is a poker statistic that measures how often a player folds to a continuation bet (c-bet) when the c-bet is made by an opponent in Middle Position (MP). It is commonly tracked in online poker HUDs (Heads-Up Displays) to analyze a player's tendencies in post-flop situations where the pre-flop raiser is from MP.

Calculation

The stat is calculated as: (Number of folds to a c-bet from MP) / (Total number of opportunities to face a c-bet from MP) × 100%. An opportunity occurs when the player is in a hand, faces a c-bet from an MP player, and has not already folded earlier in the hand. Only hands where the player reaches the flop and the MP player makes a c-bet are counted.

Typical Values and Interpretation

• High Fold to C-Bet from MP (e.g., >65%): Indicates a player who frequently gives up on flops against MP c-bets. This may suggest they are tight post-flop, often miss the flop, or are unwilling to continue without a strong hand. Exploitatively, you can c-bet more often against such players from MP, as they will fold too much.
• Low Fold to C-Bet from MP (e.g., <40%): Indicates a player who often defends against c-bets, either by calling or raising. They may be loose-passive or aggressive post-flop. Against such players, you should be more selective with your c-bets from MP, and possibly value-bet thinner or bluff less.

It's important to compare this stat with the overall Fold to C-Bet stat. If a player's Fold to C-Bet from MP is significantly different from their general Fold to C-Bet, it reveals positional awareness. For example, if they fold more to MP c-bets than to c-bets from other positions, they might be respecting the MP raiser's range more.

Strategic Implications

• For the c-bettor (MP player): Use this stat to adjust your c-bet strategy. If the opponent folds too often, you can increase your c-bet frequency in position. If they rarely fold, tighten your c-betting range and focus on value bets.
• For the defender: If you notice your own Fold to C-Bet from MP is high, consider float-ing or raising more often to defend your range. Conversely, if it's low, you may be calling too much; occasional folds can balance your strategy.
• Sample size: This stat becomes reliable after at least 50-100 opportunities. Smaller samples can be misleading due to variance.

Limitations

• Only applies when the c-bet comes exactly from MP. It does not account for multi-way pots or specific board textures.
• Does not distinguish between c-bet size, which heavily influences fold decisions.
• Highly dependent on your own range and the opponent's range perception.

Related Terms

• Fold to C-Bet: The general stat of folding to any c-bet regardless of position.
• Continuation Bet (C-Bet): A bet made by the pre-flop raiser on the flop.
• Middle Position (MP): The seats immediately after early position and before the hijack.
• Float: Calling a c-bet with the intention of betting on a later street if checked to.
• C-Bet Frequency: How often a player makes a continuation bet when they were the pre-flop raiser.