Fold to Steal from MP
Fold to Steal from MP
Term: Fold to Steal from MP The frequency with which a player folds to a steal raise from a middle position MP player when in the blinds.
Overview
Fold to Steal from MP (abbreviated as FTS_MP) is an important statistic in Texas Hold'em used to measure a player's defensive tendency when facing a steal attempt from middle position while in the blinds. This metric is typically expressed as a percentage, with higher values indicating more frequent folds.
Meaning and Calculation
This statistic is based on a player's historical behavior in the blinds (small blind or big blind) when facing an open raise from an MP player. The formula is: Number of folds / (Number of folds + Number of calls + Number of raises) × 100%. Note that it only counts when the MP player is the first to enter the pot (i.e., a steal attempt).
Strategic Application
- From the aggressor's perspective: If you notice a player has a very high FTS_MP (e.g., over 70%), an MP player can steal from them more frequently, especially when holding a wide range.
- From the defender's perspective: A reasonable FTS_MP should balance defense with protecting the blinds. Facing a standard MP steal range (about 20%-25% of hands), the theoretically optimal fold rate must be calculated based on pot odds and the opponent's range. A recommended range is usually between 40% and 60%; too low makes you exploitable, while too high sacrifices blind value.
Influencing Factors
- Player style: Tight-aggressive players tend to have a higher FTS_MP, while loose-aggressive players have a lower one.
- Stack depth: With deep stacks, the defending range can be wider; with shallow stacks, a tighter approach is needed.
- Opponent tendencies: Against opponents who steal frequently, you can lower your FTS_MP.
Limitations
This statistic depends on sample size; small samples (e.g., less than 20 instances) have low reference value. Additionally, it does not differentiate post-flop performance after calling, potentially overlooking some players' restealing strategies.
Related Terms
- Steal (Blind Steal): Refers to attempting to win the blinds by raising when it folds to you.
- Fold to Steal: A broader statistic that includes all positions.
- MP (Middle Position): Typically refers to UTG+1 on a 6-max table or UTG+2 and MP1 on a 9-max table.