胜率 × 赢额 − 败率 × 损失，快速算决策 EV
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Expected Value (EV) is the long-term average profit of a decision. Formula: EV = P(win)×Win − P(lose)×Loss. A +EV decision may lose in the short term, but will be profitable when repeated over the long term.
EV (Expected Value) = Σ (Probability × Payoff). Poker should maximize long-term EV: Call EV = Win% × Amount Won − Lose% × Amount Lost. Tournaments branch into Chip EV and ICM EV; isomorphic to pot odds — required win% is the breakeven probability. Semi-bluffs also add fold equity and implied/reverse implied terms. Use the calculator on this page to instantly compute breakeven win%, then cross-reference the numbers with opponent ranges, position, and turn/river plans — avoid memorizing formulas without applying them at the table.
Judging a +EV line by a single result; confusing monetary EV with tournament EV. Forgetting to include rake, tip, and orbit-cost in EV calculations. Treating "feels right" as probability without range estimation. Also, do not treat Solver frequencies as gospel without pot odds verification; ICM and SPR remain first principles in tournaments when information is incomplete.
For each close spot, write two lines of probability and payoff. Cross-reference with pot odds, alpha, and fold equity under the same framework. In your review, track "high EV line execution rate" rather than just short-term results. Each week, pick five real hand histories and recalculate using the same tool; then return to the glossary to review pot odds, ICM, SPR, and other auto-linked concepts. Compare with push-fold and MDF to build a complete preflop and postflop mathematical framework faster.
Scenario：Pot 200, need to call 100, win rate 45%.
Win = 200+100=300, Loss=100 2. Context: Tool example step: ev
EV = 0.45×300 − 0.55×100 = 135−55 = +80 3. Context: Tool example step: ev
Long-term call is positive EV.
Conclusion：Although win rate is below 50%, pot odds make the call +EV.
Scenario：NL25 lost 5 buy-ins, want to move up to NL50 to recover.
Check if BRM still satisfies 20+ buy-in 3. Should first lower the bet or stop and review the hand.
Conclusion：Losing streaks and raising bets violates BRM; lowering bets or taking a break is a better choice.