Middle Position Fold to Steal MP Fold to Steal

Meaning

MP (Middle Position) typically refers to UTG+1 in a 6-max game or MP1/MP2 in a 9-max game. Fold to Steal is the probability that a player folds when an opponent in a late position (CO, BTN, or SB) makes a steal raise. This statistic is an important measure of a player's resistance to steal attacks.

Calculation

MP Fold to Steal = Number of folds / (Total number of times facing a steal raise). Data typically comes from poker tracking software (e.g., Hold'em Manager or PokerTracker). The larger the sample size, the more reliable the data.

Strategic Significance

• High fold rate (>75%): Indicates the player is too weak against steals. Late-position players can frequently steal with a wider range.
• Low fold rate (<50%): Indicates the player tends to defend. Late-position players should reduce steals or only raise with strong hands.
• Ideal values vary by player, but generally 50%-70% is recommended to balance defense and exploitation.

Application Example

Suppose an MP player has a Fold to Steal of 65% and observes a BTN player with a steal rate of 40%. The MP player should defend with moderate hands (e.g., KJo, A9o) to avoid being overly exploited. At the same time, the MP player can use this data: if the BTN has a high Fold to Steal, the MP can 3-bet with a wider range to steal the blinds.

Notes

• This statistic is influenced by player style, stack depth, and opponent's stealing range.
• Using only a small sample size may lead to misjudgment.
• Combining with other stats (e.g., VPIP, PFR, 3-bet frequency) provides a more effective analysis.