下注尺度 → 对手需弃牌比例，诈唬才有正 EV
Fold Equity refers to the probability of winning the pot by making opponents fold through bluffing. Break-even fold equity = bet size ÷ (pot + bet size). If the opponent's actual fold equity is higher than this value, a pure bluff is +EV.
Fold equity ≈ Opponent's fold frequency × (current pot + dead money). Semi-bluff EV = fold equity + equity when called × subsequent pot. Short-stack steals and drawing raises rely on fold equity; directly related to break-even-steal. When ICM pressure is high, opponents over-fold, increasing fold equity but Chip EV may not necessarily be higher. Use the calculator on this page to instantly compute break-even win rate, then cross-check the numbers against opponent range, position, and turn/river plans to avoid just memorizing formulas without applying them at the table.
Frequent blind stealing in tight games; over-bluffing when blocking nutted hands. Failing to account for implied/reverse implied odds after being called. Treating tournament bubble situations as cash game fold rates. Also, do not treat Solver frequencies as golden rules that need no pot odds verification; with incomplete information, ICM and SPR remain the first principles in tournaments.
Estimate fold to steal / fold to cbet before acting. Calculate semi-bluff EV together with pot odds. When reviewing bluffs, check if opponent's range had too many continues and calibrate frequencies. Each week, pick five real hand histories and recalculate using the same tool, then revisit the glossary to review concepts that auto-link such as pot odds, ICM, and SPR. Cross-referencing with push-fold and MDF can help you build a complete preflop and postflop math framework faster; short-stack steals must be checked against break-even-steal.
Scenario：Context: Tool example scenario: fold-equity
The pot is 80, you bet 40 as a pure bluff.
Required fold equity = 40 ÷ (80 + 40) = 33.3% 2. If opponent folds in this spot about 45% 3. Context: Tool example step: fold-equity
Conclusion：Bluffing is profitable at this size (not counting equity when called).
Scenario：Pot 80, opponent bets 40, you have 8 outs.
8 outs on turn about 16%, combined on river about 32% 3. Context: Tool example step: fold-equity
Pure pot odds are insufficient; need to evaluate implied odds and position.
Conclusion：Without implied odds, calling on the turn is too loose; with reliable implied odds or opponent overpay, you can continue.
Scenario：Context: Tool example scenario: fold-equity
Pot is 200, you consider betting 50 for thin value.
Conclusion：Thin value betting is essentially a scaled-down pot odds problem; the smaller the bet size, the wider the required calling range.