夺冠概率 × 席位价值 − 买入，对比主赛路径
期望值（Expected Value）是衡量一个决策在长期重复中平均盈利或亏损的数学指标，正EV表示盈利，负EV表示亏损。
Glossary马脚是指玩家在牌局中无意识流露出的、能透露其手牌强度或意图的肢体动作、表情或行为模式。在实战中，识别并利用对手的马脚可以显著提升读牌能力，从而在决策时获得优势，例如判断是否该加注或弃牌。典型场景：一位玩家在翻牌后突然屏住呼吸并微微后仰，这往往暗示他持有强牌，试图掩饰兴奋；相反，若他频繁看筹码并快速下注，可能是在诈唬。
Glossary卫星赛是一种奖励为更高级别锦标赛参赛席位而非现金的扑克锦标赛。实战中，卫星赛让资金有限的玩家以较低成本获得高额买入赛事的入场券，是扑克生态中重要的晋级通道。例如，一名玩家参加买入100美元的卫星赛，若获胜则赢得价值10,000美元的世界扑克系列赛主赛事席位，从而用小额投入撬动高额奖金机会。典型场景是线上或线下平台举办多级卫星赛，从低买入层层晋级至顶级赛事。
Satellite tournaments use a smaller buy-in to win a seat in a larger event. Expected Value = Probability of winning × Seat Value − Buy-in. If your estimated win rate makes the EV higher than buying directly into the main event or playing cash games, then the satellite is worth playing.
Satellite EV revolves around qualification tickets: chip utility is non-linear, often tighter and more risk-averse than Chip EV. Near the qualification line, fold marginal +cEV bluffs; similar to ICM-payout thinking but with a single ticket as the objective instead of a full payout tree. When ahead, preserving qualification outweighs accumulating extra chips. Use the calculator on this page to instantly compute break-even equity, then cross-check with opponent ranges, position, and turn/river plans – avoid memorizing formulas without applying them at the table.
Bluffing wildly and donating chips when leading in a satellite. Mistaking the qualification bubble for the Main Event money bubble and calling loosely. Helping opponents when already qualified. Also, don't treat Solver frequencies as gospel without verifying pot odds; when information is incomplete, ICM and SPR remain the first principles of tournaments.
Divide strategy into two phases: "accumulating chips" and "securing qualification". Calculate with ICM and orbit-cost whether to play or fold. Review the strategy pivot points before and after the qualification zone. Each week, pick five real hand histories and recalculate them using the same tool; then revisit the glossary to review pot odds, ICM, SPR and other concepts that auto-link.
Scenario：Satellite $100, seat value $10,000, you estimate win rate 12%.
EV = 0.12 × 10,000 − 100 = $1,100 2. ROI approximately 1100% 3. Tool example step: satellite-ev
Need to compare EV of directly buying the main event.
Conclusion：If 12% is credible, the satellite expectation is very high; but variance is extremely high, requiring sufficient BRM.
Scenario：Win rate is only 5%, the rest is the same as above.
EV = 0.05 × 10,000 − 100 = $400 2. Still positive EV but significantly decreased
Conclusion：Context: Tool example result: satellite-ev
Should honestly assess technical skill level; 5% may still be optimistic.
Scenario：Same $100 buy-in, cash tournament expected profit $800.
Conclusion：Use the same win rate assumption to compare paths, rather than selecting tournaments by gut feeling.